Breder.org

Hedging Is Just Good Judgment

There are many true things which do not make for good stories, but are still very real.

One of them is the notion of hedging. More concretely, placing bets on both sides of the coin.

Good stories are made by people who supposedly went all-in and succeeded at their goals through unreasonable commitment.

Of course, the story is only told after the result is known to be good, so that we can conveniently omit all the people who failed by following the same approach.

Good judgment, on the other hand, must take into account the uncertainty and incomplete information of the real world.

No one truly knows how things will turn out.

Preparation for both positive and negative outcomes, to the extent of their likelihood and gravity, are often frowned upon because it looks too much like “moral ambiguity”.

The answer to questions like these are the same as for “Why do you purchase insurance if you don't plan to crash your car?”.

If you don't get into an accident, you're set back by the inconsequential amount you paid for the insurance policy. If you do, you're covered as well. In short, both ways, you'll be fine.

That's the concept of hedging: committing to a course of action while managing the likely outcomes.